New York COVID-19 Death Projections Fall, In Contrast With Most Of U.S.

There are three regions of New York State that have yet to begin the first phase of the state's reopening plan: New York City, Long Island and the Mid-Hudson region (just north of the city).

Governor Andrew Cuomo took the "ultimate step" to the flatten the COVID-19 hospitalization curve two months ago. While the economic fallout from the widespread closures have been painful, Cuomo has long defended the measures as less painful than attending the funeral of a loved one.

As a result of the New Yorkers taking social distancing seriously and following the state's guidance, the curve has flattened. On Wednesday, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub from the University of Massachusetts revised New York's projected death rate downward.

New York is an exception in that regard.

The projected death rates in New Jersey and Connecticut, and in the nation at large, have all increased. This is happening even as NJ, CT and many other states hurtle towards reopening beaches and parks in time for Memorial Day weekend.

The latest model projects 31,517 COVID deaths in New York by June 13 — several hundred fewer than what the last model projected the state would lose by just June 6.

New York has endured about 115 deaths per day for the past week, as its most densely populated regions remain largely shuttered.

As New Jersey moves to reopen beaches Friday with capacity restrictions, the state is still reporting nearly 200 deaths per day.

It's projected death total by June 13 was revised from 10,747 to 12,848.

Connecticut's was also increased by a few hundred.

As a nation, the U.S. has lost nearly 93,000 people so far, according to NBC News. The country could lose another 20,000 over the next month.

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub says there is only a 10 percent chance the death toll by June 13 is less than 107,000.

Photo: Getty Images

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